Saturday, October 11, 2008

Climate Scientists Plead with Green Party Supporters in Key Ridings to Vote Strategically

Three of Canada's leading climate scientists say that Green Party supporters can help to defeat the Conservatives in this election by voting strategically in 121 key ridings. They are calling on Green Party Leader Elizabeth May to make a clear statement supporting this approach.

The scientists are Dr. Andrew Weaver from the University of Victoria, Dr. William Peltier from the University of Toronto and Dr. John Stone from Carleton University.

Based on the latest polls, they say that:
  • In 81 ridings, Green Party supporters can help to defeat the Conservative candidate who is currently leading.
  • In 40 additional ridings, Green Party supporters can help to ensure that a Conservative does not overtake the current leading candidate at the last moment.
We list the ridings in each category, plus the information sources, below.

We agree that it is about time that Elizabeth May reconsidered her position on strategic voting. On September 30, 2008, she was quoted as opposing strategic voting despite admitting that,
"'We are too close to the edge of a global apocalypse,' [...] 'We have got to grab the opportunities we have. And clearly the contribution Canadians can make to a global solution is to get rid of Stephen Harper.' [...]

"'I'd rather have no Green seats and Stephen Harper lose.'"
On October 8, 2008, she seemed to recommend strategic voting in key ridings, but on October 9, 2008, she come out strongly against any strategic voting because
"I want Canadians to elect Green MPs."
No wonder that as of October 11, 2008, some of her supporters still sounded confused by May's stance.

We agree with the scientists. We think that Elizabeth May should change her position. She should keep it simple by saying,
"Vote for Green Party candidates everywhere except the ridings where you can help to guarantee a Conservative loss by voting strategically."
Preventing a Conservative win in this election is important for stopping dangerous climate change. This goes beyond any party loyalty, personal ambition, time and effort invested Green Party candidates and supporters or party funding issues.

Update: we agree with about the need to
"...remind greens and Green parties everywhere of the philosophical principles of Green politics should they inadvertently be lead astray by the lure of power, money, glamor, or fame."
We hope that Green Party supporters and the Party Leader, of all people, would understand that some personal sacrifice is justified when the planet's future is at stake.

Still, it should not be up to supporters of one party alone to help defeat the Conservatives by voting strategically. We encourage all progressive voters to check the more general list of key ridings where strategic voting by anyone who is opposed to the Conservatives can make a difference.

Ridings where Green Party supporters can help to defeat the Conservative candidate who is currently leading (in alphabetic order):
  • Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
  • Barrie
  • Blackstrap
  • Brant
  • Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
  • Burlington
  • Burnaby—New Westminster
  • Cambridge
  • Cariboo—Prince George
  • Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia
  • Chatham-Kent—Essex
  • Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River / Desnethé—Missinippi—Rivière Churchill
  • Durham
  • Edmonton Centre / Edmonton-Centre
  • Edmonton—Strathcona
  • Elgin—Middlesex—London
  • Essex
  • Fleetwood—Port Kells
  • Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
  • Haldimand—Norfolk
  • Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
  • Halton
  • Huron—Bruce
  • Jonquière—Alma
  • Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo
  • Kildonan—St. Paul
  • Kitchener—Conestoga
  • Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
  • Lévis—Bellechasse
  • London West / London-Ouest
  • Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
  • Mégantic—L'Érable
  • Nanaimo—Alberni
  • NB - Fundy Royal
  • NB - Tobique—Mactaquac
  • New Westminster—Coquitlam
  • Newmarket—Aurora
  • Newton—North Delta / Newton—Delta-Nord
  • Niagara Falls
  • NL - Avalon
  • NL - St. John's East / St. John's-Est
  • NL - St. John's South—Mount Pearl / St. John's-Sud Mount Pearl
  • North Vancouver
  • Northumberland—Quinte West
  • Nova / Nova-Ouest
  • NS - Central Nova / Nova-Centre*
  • Oakville
  • Okanagan—Shuswap
  • Oshawa
  • Ottawa West—Nepean / Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean
  • Ottawa—Orléans
  • Oxford
  • Palliser
  • Parry Sound—Muskoka
  • Perth—Wellington
  • Peterborough
  • Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission
  • Pontiac
  • Prince Albert
  • Prince Edward—Hastings
  • Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre
  • Regina—Qu'Appelle
  • Richmond
  • Richmond Hill
  • Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean
  • Sarnia—Lambton
  • Saskatoon—Humboldt
  • Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar
  • Saskatoon—Wanuskewin
  • Selkirk—Interlake
  • Simcoe North / Simcoe-Nord
  • Simcoe—Grey
  • St. Catharines
  • Sud—Mount Pearl
  • Vancouver Island North / Île de Vancouver-Nord
  • Vancouver Quadra
  • Victoria
  • West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
  • Whitby—Oshawa
  • Winnipeg South / Winnipeg-Sud
  • York—Simcoe
* In NS Central Nova, where Elizabeth May is running, the detailed analysis table (source below) shows the Greens as the second place party. The strategic voting choice is to vote Green.

Ridings where Green Party supporters can help to ensure that a Conservative does not overtake the current leading candidate at the last moment (in alphabetic order):
  • Beauport—Limoilou
  • Brampton West / Brampton-Ouest
  • Burnaby—Douglas
  • Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
  • Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca
  • Etobicoke—Lakeshore
  • Kenora
  • London—Fanshawe
  • Louis-Hébert
  • Mississauga South / Mississauga-Sud
  • Mississauga—Erindale
  • Mississauga—Streetsville
  • NB - Fredericton
  • NB - Madawaska—Restigouche
  • NB - Miramichi
  • NB - Saint John
  • NL - Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor
  • NL - Labrador
  • NL - Random—Burin—St. George's
  • NS - Kings—Hants
  • NS - South Shore—St. Margaret's
  • Nunavut
  • Oak Ridges—Markham
  • Ottawa South / Ottawa-Sud
  • PE - Cardigan
  • PE - Charlottetown
  • PE - Egmont
  • PE - Malpeque
  • Saanich—Gulf Islands
  • Saint Boniface / Saint-Boniface
  • Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
  • Surrey North / Surrey-Nord
  • Thunder Bay—Rainy River
  • Vancouver Kingsway
  • Vancouver South / Vancouver-Sud
  • Welland
  • Western Arctic
  • Willowdale
  • Winnipeg South Centre / Winnipeg-Centre-Sud
  • Yukon


Scientists' Press Release quoted in the blog.

Detailed riding-by-riding analysis table (PDF).

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