Runaway Climate Change? Massive Methane Release off Siberia? Nah, Let's Talk About Wall Street Instead!

On the upper decks of our "Titanic", everyone is worried stiff about a crisis on Wall Street. At Harpers' request, "Gone are the opening and closing statements by respective leaders [in the TV debate]. Instead, they’ll devote the first 30 minutes of the two-hour debate to the economy." According to the Conservatives, "...the economic discussion should occur first, before debate on less urgent issues". What might the "less urgent issues" be? Health care, child care, elder care, First Nations poverty, the Afghan War, the need for artists to have more babies -- or are they hoping that most people would tune out before they get to talk about climate change?

As we've said before, you cannot debate the economy without debating the environment. We hope that the other party leaders would make this point very strongly as all of them know it. Here's an example why it's urgent that they make the link:

(Insert ominous music here.) Scientists have found methane bubbling up from the sea at 100 times the background level over huge areas of the Russian arctic. Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas, 21 times stronger than CO2. The additional trapped heat may melt more permafrost, releasing more of the methane underneath. More methane -- more melting -- more methane -- it could be a vicious cycle, the much-dreaded "runaway warming" that we may not be able to stop.

"For the average person, it's one more piece of evidence... that the urgency of addressing the issue is there"

-- Dale Marshall, David Suzuki Foundation (see "Canadian Reaction" below).

Here are more details:

"The scientists who have studied methane levels along Russia's northern coastline are aboard the Russian research ship Jacob Smirnitskyi.

"Örjan Gustafsson of Stockholm University in Sweden told the Independent newspaper in an email from the vessel: 'An extensive area of intense methane release was found. At earlier sites we had found elevated levels of dissolved methane.

"'Yesterday, for the first time, we documented a field where the release was so intense that the methane did not have time to dissolve into the seawater but was rising as methane bubbles to the sea surface. These 'methane chimneys' were documented on echo sounder and with seismic [instrument].'

"At some locations he said concentrations of the gas were 100 times the background level. These anomalies were documented in the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea, covering several tens of thousands of square kilometres.

"Gustafsson added: 'The conventional thought has been that the permafrost 'lid' on the sub-sea sediments on the Siberian shelf should cap and hold the massive reservoirs of shallow methane deposits in place.

'The growing evidence for release of methane in this inaccessible region may suggest that the permafrost lid is starting to get perforated and thus leaking methane.'"

Source: Methane release off Siberian coast prompts concern over runaway climate change | Environment | guardian.co.uk (bolding added)

More details:

"The preliminary findings of the International Siberian Shelf Study 2008, being prepared for publication by the American Geophysical Union, are being overseen by Igor Semiletov of the Far-Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Since 1994, he has led about 10 expeditions in the Laptev Sea but during the 1990s he did not detect any elevated levels of methane. However, since 2003 he reported a rising number of methane 'hotspots', which have now been confirmed using more sensitive instruments on board the Jacob Smirnitskyi.

"Dr Semiletov has suggested several possible reasons why methane is now being released from the Arctic, including the rising volume of relatively warmer water being discharged from Siberia's rivers due to the melting of the permafrost on the land.

"The Arctic region as a whole has seen a 4C rise in average temperatures over recent decades and a dramatic decline in the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by summer sea ice. Many scientists fear that the loss of sea ice could accelerate the warming trend because open ocean soaks up more heat from the sun than the reflective surface of an ice-covered sea."

Source: Exclusive: The methane time bomb - Climate Change, Environment - The Independen

Note the upcoming publication of a scientific study based on the findings by the American Geophysical Union.

Canadian reaction:

"Marianne Douglas, the head of the Canadian Circumpolar Institute at the University of Alberta, said this latest research raises some important questions.

"'It's a time bomb because, as the permafrost thaws -- and we don't know how fast it will thaw -- it's going to slowly and maybe catastrophically at some point, release all that methane that's trapped underneath as a solid,' she said.

"Some scientists believe that the sudden release of methane may have been responsible for sudden spikes in global temperatures millions of years ago.

"'In the geological record, there's evidence about 55 million years ago about this having happened as well in the past,' Douglas said, adding a huge burst of methane warmed the temperature of the Earth by up to 6C over a 20,000 year period.

"'From the geological record, they can see that this actually ended up with some extinctions of small micro-organisms and the onset of new organisms, like mammals.'

"Instead of losing hope over this scenario and giving up on fighting climate change, Dale Marshall, an Ottawa-based climate change policy analyst with the David Suzuki Foundation, said people should interpret this research as being another reason to combat global warming.

"Scientists say polar sea ice is melting, which allows more sunlight to penetrate ocean water. That water heats up, melting the permafrost on the ocean floor that has, up until now, prevented large releases of methane.

"'For the average person, it's one more piece of evidence and one more confirmation that the urgency of addressing the issue is there,' Marshall said.

"'This is one of the pieces of evidence that may point to the fact that we're approaching that kind of a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions accumulate in the atmosphere to the point where you get a cascading series of events that leads to more and more climate change that's hard to turn around at that stage.'"

Source: Study says methane from ocean floor is 'time bomb' (CP via CTV News)

For now, the Globe & Mail says, "Harper majority a concern to more than half of Canadians: poll":

"More than half of Canadian voters say they're worried about the thought of giving Stephen Harper a majority government, but most wouldn't change their vote to prevent it.

Hmm...

"Strider: Are you frightened?
"Frodo: Yes.
"Strider: Not nearly frightened enough."

(Lord of the Rings: Fellowship... movie)

Vote strategically to save the climate, before it's too late -- any of the opposition parties are much better than the Conservatives!

[Important Notice]

Farewell to Nova Scotia -- and PEI -- and NYC -- and Tokyo -- and... and...? Rising Sea Levels, Megafloods, and the Deniers

In coming decades, rising sea levels and frequent mega-storms will endanger Canada's Maritime Provinces. Some of the largest world cities, like Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, Mumbai, Shanghai, Jakarta, and Dhaka are also at risk. The culprit, according to researchers: you guessed it, global warming. Yet some people continue to deny the scientific evidence -- either cynically or due to breathtaking ignorance, even about very recent history.

Back in more innocent times, political bickering about power-sharing and transfer payments were Canada's main concerns (I know, they still are, if you judge by the latest Federal Budget). I heard a parody version of "Farewell to Nova Scotia" on the C.B.C. in the late 1990s that began with "Farewell to Nova Scotia and P.E.I. / And New Brunswickers will understand...."The rest of the song mocked the notion of a "Maritime Union", with the punch-line, "And the name of our new land will be NewScotIsland!" (If you can find the rest of the lyrics, please leave a clue or link in the Comments.)

The issue facing the Maritimes this century is not union but physical isolation -- and worse -- due to rising seal levels and increasingly frequent super-storms. Consider this:

• "The major railway line that connects Halifax with the rest of Canada runs along about a foot above sea level along the Bay of Fundy," according to Gordon McBean, president of the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences. It is at risk of being flooded out in the upcoming decades unless we do some serious engineering. (Source: Globe & Mail)
  

• A soon-to-be-released "...UN study will identify coastal areas sensitive to sea-level rise and cite Charlottetown [the Capital of Prince Edward Island, and the birthplace of Canadian Confederation] as an example of a city vulnerable to increased flooding and storm surges, Mr. McBean said." (Source: Globe & Mail; emphasis added)
  

• The Canso Causeway is what links Cape Breton Island with the rest of Nova Scotia. Nobody seems to have mentioned it recently, but during the November 2004 winter storm,

  "The Canso Causeway to Cape Breton... suffered structural damage and was closed."
  

If rising sea levels and frequent storms close the Causeway permanently, then the Cape Breton separatists might just get their wish -- though not in the way they had expected.

The Great Maritime Blizzard or "White Juan" (February 18, 2004)
Environment Canada, GOES satellite
imagery showing the evolution of the storm
Source: Regional Municipality of Halifax,
"Climate SMART: Be cool - reduce global warming & climate risks"
http://www.halifax.ca/Climate/change3.html

The Maritimes might need Elizabeth May and the Green Party even more than some people realize. Their "Green Plan 2" (GP2) [PDF, see p. 3] includes support for

"Adaptation to Climate Change: Develop pro-active adaptation strategies for vulnerable residential areas, and for economic sectors particularly dependent on stable climatic conditions...."

Unfortunately, the problems foreseen for the Canadian Maritime Provinces are far from unique:

"More than two-thirds of the world's large cities are in areas vulnerable to global warming and rising sea levels, and millions of people are at risk of being swamped by flooding and intense storms, according to a study released Wednesday.

"In all, 634 million people live in the threatened coastal areas worldwide — defined as those lying at less than 10.05 metres above sea level — and the number is growing, said the study, which was published in the journal Environment and Urbanization.

"More than 180 countries have populations in low-elevation coastal zones, and about 70 per cent of those have urban areas of more than five million people that are under threat.

"Among them: Tokyo, New York, Mumbai, India; Shanghai, China; Jakarta, Indonesia; and Dhaka, Bangladesh." (Source: CBC.)

Hey, these just happen to be some of the largest cities in the world!

"Separately, the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in a draft copy of a report expected to be released next week that coastlines are already showing the impact of sea-level rise. The draft copy, which was obtained by the Associated Press, said about 100 million people each year could be flooded by rising seas by 2080.

"The draft copy warned that two of the biggest cities in North America — Los Angeles and New York — are at risk of a combination of sea-level rise and violent storms. By 2090, under a worst-case scenario, megafloods that normally would hit North America once every 100 years 'could occur as frequently as every three to four years,' the draft said." (Source: CBC.)

Alas, some of the the reader comments to the above Globe & Mail story show an incredible level of cynicism, ignorance and denial. For example, "Dutchie . from Toronto, Canada" writes:

"I think the sense of panic portrayed in the comment about the rail link to Halifax being under threat is tragically hilarious. It's a foot above sea level? Fine, build a two foot berm next to it, maybe accented with some nice bushes. Sea levels are not going to come crashing in with a giant tidal wave to flood us all; even as they rise it will be a slow, gradual increase that will lead to a little bit higher high-tide. The overall issue of climate change is serious, but it isn't helped by non-serious comments by scientists/politicians clamouring 'Catastrophe! Disaster!'" [emphasis added].

Wow! It's so good to learn that Hurricane Katrina was not a "Catastrophe! Disaster!" where a mega-storm overwhelmed flood control structures that had been adequate against then-average sea levels. Hey, maybe it never really happened -- was it all just a made-for-TV movie?!

Flooded I-10/I-610/West End Blvd. interchange and
surrounding area of northwest New Orleans and Metairie, Louisiana
Source: Wikipedia

How soon some people forget!

[Important Notice]