In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.Details at http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Environment/2009/10/26/11530856-ap.html
“If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect,” said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.
Grego produced three charts to show how choosing a starting date can alter perceptions. Using the skeptics’ satellite data beginning in 1998, there is a “mild downward trend,” he said. But doing that is “deceptive.”
The trend disappears if the analysis starts in 1997. And it trends upward if you begin in 1999, he said.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Global cooling? Statisticians reject climate claims
Oh, how I wish it were true and we could stop worrying -- but unfortunately there's no real global cooling: